Welcome back to my journey through our local real estate landscape, one school district at a time. This edition, we spotlight the end of 2023 in the Unionville-Chadds Ford School District. As part of this ongoing series, we navigate the latest market data to find the story told in numbers and trends. Join me as we explore and analyze, shedding light on the current state of this dynamic market.
A school district straddling two counties and bordering a state line, the area is a bedroom community for employment centers in Pennsylvania and Delaware. We’ll be looking at the same statistics as usual, so head over to my Glossary of Terms for a refresher on any of the terms. Let’s see what the statistics for the Unionville-Chadds Ford School District will tell us!
Month-Over-Month
|
Month over Month |
||||||
|
Date Range |
Average Sale Price |
Volume Sold |
Units Sold |
Units Listed |
DOM |
MSI |
|
Nov-23 |
$820,532 |
$15,590,10 |
19 |
20 |
27 |
2.4 |
|
Dec-23 |
$1,350,179 |
$18,902,500 |
14 |
7 |
38 |
1.9 |
|
% change |
64.55% |
21.25% |
-26.32% |
-65.00% |
40.74% |
-20.83% |
Examining the numbers for November and December 2023, we see that the market took a bit of a shock. The average sale price jumped by about 65%, and the units listed dropped by the same amount. Mirroring this imbalance, we see the total volume sold being unexpectedly higher than the total units sold would suggest.
Even with so many anomalies, some of the data paints a vivid picture. Looking at the units listed compared to units sold, we see there were twice as many properties purchased as listed. The MSI reflects this, indicating a reduced time frame for selling all properties at the current rate of sales, assuming no new listings come to market. While a larger change in MSI might be expected with that much of a difference in purchases vs listings, the average days-on-market of more than a month helps explain why the MSI didn’t fall further.
Given the data fields we’re analyzing, identifying the particular cause of this surge in pricing requires a crystal ball. Let’s take a look at the Year-Over-Year statistics and see if anything comes into focus.
Year-Over-Year
|
Year over Year |
||||||
|
Date Range |
Average Sale Price |
Volume Sold |
Units Sold |
Units Listed |
DOM |
MSI |
|
Dec-22 |
$733,468 |
$11,002,018 |
15 |
11 |
23 |
4.1 |
|
Dec-23 |
$1,350,179 |
$18,902,50 |
14 |
7 |
38 |
1.9 |
|
% change |
84.08% |
71.81% |
-6.67% |
-36.36% |
65.22% |
-53.66% |
The seasonal ebb and flow of real estate tends to lead to predictability in market conditions. As we can see above, we need to find a different kernel of wisdom to apply this year. Compared to the month-over-month data, the average price jump is even more pronounced. Likewise, the change in DOM and MSI are considerably increased compared to the month-over-month data. In this year-over-year comparison, units sold are nearly the same, yet the volume sold was higher this past December than the year before.
With the data examined so far, we still don’t have enough information to make an educated guess at what could have caused this change in market conditions. All we can definitively say is that there were particularly large sales in Q4 of both 2022 and 2023. When we work with averages, a single or few anomalies can skew the entire data set. Another way of assessing information is to look at the median, or middle number when all the data points are written as a list.
|
Date Range |
Median Sale Price |
|
Dec-22 |
$750,000 |
|
Nov-23 |
$675,000 |
|
Dec-23 |
$710,000 |
|
Date Range |
Percent Change |
|
22-23 Change |
-5.33% |
|
Nov-Dec Change |
5.19% |
Considering the median sale price, instead of the average sale price, the market appears much more stable. This is one of the reasons why it is important to work with a knowledgeable professional when it comes time to buy or sell a home. The story of averages can be helpful at times, but true insights come from considering the situation from many perspectives. We still don’t have enough information to definitively say why the average prices went up like they did in the Unionville-Chadds Ford School District, though we’ve taken steps to get there.
Conclusion
With this month’s market report, we explored the numbers for the Unionville-Chadds Ford School District. In our month-over-month comparison, we encountered a huge jump in average sale prices along with a drop in new listings. Even so, with an average DOM of more than a month, and a look at only a few comparisons, we need more information to make a reasonable guess.
Expanding our look to a year-over-year comparison, the story of averages continued to lead to more questions than answers. When we considered median sale prices, or the middle price when all prices are listed highest to lowest, we were rewarded for not jumping to conclusions with the average price numbers. Regardless of the exact details, it seems clear that some properties in the area are selling at a premium. Is this that early spring market activity I spoke about in recent articles? Or, is something else happening in the Unionville-Chadds Ford School District that is impacting average sale price? Real Estate really does thrive on local, up-to-date information.
Thank you for joining me on another exploration of the real estate market in one of Chester County’s school districts! I hope you found this as interesting as I did, and look forward to sharing more market insights to your inbox each month. If you’d like to dig deeper into these numbers, or are interested in your local area, please get in touch!
*All data ©BrightMLS - Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
