Is October the new July in Real Estate?

Is October the new July in Real Estate?

The most notable trend in today’s national housing market is the sharp rise in withdrawn listings. Through September, withdrawals climbed to 42.3% of new listings—the highest rate in years—as more sellers decide to pause rather than drop prices in a slower demand environment.

Here in Chester County, we've been following our pattern and lagging behind national trends. Where other areas face record numbers of withdrawn listings, we're faced with price decreases that keep housing prices steady. 

For sellers considering a move, testing the market strategically can make all the difference. Work with me to activate The Compass 3-Phased Marketing Strategy, including Private Exclusives and Coming Soon, to help:

  • Position your home ahead of the market from day one

  • Test demand and pricing before going fully live

  • Capture buyers quickly as conditions improve

Let’s develop a plan to position your home for success—whether now or when the timing is right.

 

Here are a few insights that stood out:

Increased withdrawals at the end of the year. The sharp rise in withdrawn homes between November and December of 2023-2024 surprised me. While I expect fewer transactions to happen during that time of the year, historically, sellers have left their homes on the market for those "just in case" offers. This is another trend showing how our market has shifted.

October is the new top month for inventory. In years past, we saw peak housing inventory and peak real estate transactions in July and August. That's not so much the case anymore. When it happened once, it was a fluke. When it happened again, it was a coincidence. When it happened a third time, it became a pattern. Now that we're in the 4th year of this pattern, it is the new norm.

Our region has not been following the national trend. For once, a national economist points out in his report that our area, North East USA, does not reflect these national trends (13:32). As I've known for years, when there are national real estate trends, Chester County comes into those trends later, with less extreme changes, and then is stuck in that trend later. With this in mind, can we expect to see the same uptick in withdrawals in the coming months?

Prices remain sticky. While national trends speak to housing prices remaining within 2% of last year's numbers, here in Chester County, I'm more interested in how the median sale price was the same in September as in May. Even with all the price decreases we've seen, the median price hasn't budged. Even in today's market, homes can be overpriced.

Takeaway: With inventory flat and many sellers waiting on the sidelines, those who list now face limited competition—but success depends on testing the market with the right pricing strategy. Buyers can get ahead with me by leveraging Compass Private Exclusives and Coming Soon listings to access opportunities early.

 

Source: Altos Research, Compass, Single Family - Updated through October 3rd

 

Have questions about what this means for your neighborhood or your home plans? Just reach out—I’m always here to help you navigate the market with clarity and confidence.

Is October the new July in Real Estate?

Work With Jon

His extensive knowledge of Chester County and broad experience in real estate is an invaluable advantage to his clients. Representing and consulting with clients either buying or selling new or resale homes, residential investment properties, building lots, and raw ground, he is dedicated to accomplishing his clients’ goals ahead of all others.